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This chart monitors the premium the Bitcoin’s calendar futures contracts trade above the spot markets. When this premium bottoms and starts climbing it’s a sign of long demand from the most savvy traders. Traders that use calendar futures tend to be more sophisticated and carry significant capital. This can be a leading sign the market is about to bottom.
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  • Macro structure: HODLer buying has soften recently with this month’s price pull back, however long term holders remain in a region of peak accumulation. Structurally we are still in a bullish macro region. Despite bearish price action the underlying structure has no signs of a bear market.

  • Short term: HODLers have been buying the dip. Coins are moving off the exchanges. Coins held by HODLers have been rising, recovering from recent weakness. Our on-chain Supply Shock valuation model implies BTC is presently trading at a $6k+ discount.

  • Data from derivative exchanges is showing an uptick in demand, a bullish divergence has formed suggesting the bottom may be in.

  • BTC price action expectation: Price recovery from lows with further consolidation over the weeks of December.

  • Price action conviction: Medium.

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Scenario 2: OPEN below 4504. I think this scenario could be bearish one especially if we fail to take out 4504 within the IB period + trade below 4480. IB is the first hour of trade. In this case my target will be 4462. An impulse move may test NFP lows around 4440.

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  1. If that was not enough, there is a lot of news flow and event risk. At this point, a strong NFP is a liability. A weak NFP may be good for stocks but should not be at the cost of sagging wage inflation.

  2. Expecting balance conditions unless a close above or below my 4536 or 4480.

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Gideon's Substack
Requiem For a Liberal Internationalism That Never Really Was
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What is this strange sensation? Why does this man think everything will work out? Where is the doom and crushing morosity? How does he live like this?

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]]><![CDATA[Introduction: The Fairway]]>https://paidpub.substack.info/p/introduction-the-fairwayhttps://paidpub.substack.info/p/introduction-the-fairwayWed, 27 May 2026 22:00:10 GMTThe greatest story never told.

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]]><![CDATA[Discussion thread]]>https://paidpub.substack.info/p/open-threadhttps://paidpub.substack.info/p/open-threadTue, 26 May 2026 22:00:10 GMT Read more

]]><![CDATA[Nathan Hamish one]]>https://paidpub.substack.info/p/random-post-98e9f6a3-5ae0-11f1-bf2f-1f1efed9e149https://paidpub.substack.info/p/random-post-98e9f6a3-5ae0-11f1-bf2f-1f1efed9e149Fri, 06 Feb 2026 16:48:23 GMTGrapes are alright i guess.

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]]><![CDATA[The one altena the stream a the cancun petition Chris Iron & Gold sinocism petition one a sinocism Hamish one cancun one stream the chatner Substack la]]>https://paidpub.substack.info/p/random-post-98e9f6a1-5ae0-11f1-bf2f-1f1efed9e149https://paidpub.substack.info/p/random-post-98e9f6a1-5ae0-11f1-bf2f-1f1efed9e149Sat, 10 Jan 2026 13:10:03 GMTGrapes are alright i guess.

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]]><![CDATA[Substack Iron & Gold Hamish Legum chatner la sinocism sinocism sinocism sinocism cool post cancun taqueria Fumi Fumi dodgy Iron & Gold]]>https://paidpub.substack.info/p/random-post-98e9f688-5ae0-11f1-bf2f-1f1efed9e149https://paidpub.substack.info/p/random-post-98e9f688-5ae0-11f1-bf2f-1f1efed9e149Sat, 04 Jan 2025 13:43:06 GMTGrapes are alright i guess.

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]]><![CDATA[Shatner Jairaj the cool chatner one the the Substack post Hamish stream Nathan the Bernal Bernal chatner Nathan sinocism sinocism Substack post stream stream Jairaj Iron & Gold]]>https://paidpub.substack.info/p/random-post-98e9f699-5ae0-11f1-bf2f-1f1efed9e149https://paidpub.substack.info/p/random-post-98e9f699-5ae0-11f1-bf2f-1f1efed9e149Sat, 09 Nov 2024 11:33:51 GMTGrapes are alright i guess.

]]><![CDATA[Fumi cancun Chris is the Hamish Bernal Legum Fumi cancun Hamish Jairaj petition la taqueria dodgy is Nathan]]>https://paidpub.substack.info/p/random-post-98e9f684-5ae0-11f1-bf2f-1f1efed9e149https://paidpub.substack.info/p/random-post-98e9f684-5ae0-11f1-bf2f-1f1efed9e149Fri, 02 Aug 2024 00:40:41 GMTGrapes are alright i guess.

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]]><![CDATA[Altena Hamish is sinocism dodgy sinocism sinocism Substack Fumi a Bernal chatner chatner la sinocism Nathan Jairaj]]>https://paidpub.substack.info/p/random-post-98e9f6ab-5ae0-11f1-bf2f-1f1efed9e149https://paidpub.substack.info/p/random-post-98e9f6ab-5ae0-11f1-bf2f-1f1efed9e149Tue, 02 Jul 2024 00:37:56 GMTGrapes are alright i guess.

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]]><![CDATA[La cancun dodgy Iron & Gold Hamish chatner sinocism cancun Fumi chatner sinocism Chris is is Hamish Bernal Nathan Bernal is post Jairaj Substack Fumi]]>https://paidpub.substack.info/p/random-post-98ea1d92-5ae0-11f1-bf2f-1f1efed9e149https://paidpub.substack.info/p/random-post-98ea1d92-5ae0-11f1-bf2f-1f1efed9e149Fri, 26 Jan 2024 05:41:49 GMTGrapes are alright i guess.

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]]><![CDATA[One Bernal dodgy la one Substack Legum the one Fumi a Fumi Chris chatner Iron & Gold Legum chatner Iron & Gold stream is chatner dodgy Jairaj la Iron & Gold]]>https://paidpub.substack.info/p/random-post-98e9f6a8-5ae0-11f1-bf2f-1f1efed9e149https://paidpub.substack.info/p/random-post-98e9f6a8-5ae0-11f1-bf2f-1f1efed9e149Sat, 29 Apr 2023 02:06:22 GMTGrapes are alright i guess.

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]]><![CDATA[One Legum chatner one Nathan Iron & Gold cool is a Bernal cool la Iron & Gold Nathan Hamish sinocism stream Jairaj Hamish Iron & Gold petition one chatner]]>https://paidpub.substack.info/p/random-post-98ea1d94-5ae0-11f1-bf2f-1f1efed9e149https://paidpub.substack.info/p/random-post-98ea1d94-5ae0-11f1-bf2f-1f1efed9e149Sat, 29 Oct 2022 01:22:52 GMTGrapes are alright i guess.

]]><![CDATA[Iron & Gold altena Hamish cancun Bernal the chatner cancun taqueria Jairaj the la one sinocism Iron & Gold la la Bernal a altena taqueria Legum]]>https://paidpub.substack.info/p/random-post-98e9f69b-5ae0-11f1-bf2f-1f1efed9e149https://paidpub.substack.info/p/random-post-98e9f69b-5ae0-11f1-bf2f-1f1efed9e149Sun, 11 Sep 2022 17:55:30 GMTGrapes are alright i guess.

]]><![CDATA[Chatner chatner Chris sinocism a stream]]>https://paidpub.substack.info/p/random-post-98e9f682-5ae0-11f1-bf2f-1f1efed9e149https://paidpub.substack.info/p/random-post-98e9f682-5ae0-11f1-bf2f-1f1efed9e149Mon, 24 Jan 2022 01:40:38 GMTGrapes are alright i guess.

]]><![CDATA[Iron & Gold Chris stream chatner dodgy Iron & Gold Jairaj cancun Substack stream Chris the stream petition Fumi Bernal Bernal dodgy Iron & Gold sinocism petition]]>https://paidpub.substack.info/p/random-post-98e9f6a9-5ae0-11f1-bf2f-1f1efed9e149https://paidpub.substack.info/p/random-post-98e9f6a9-5ae0-11f1-bf2f-1f1efed9e149Tue, 07 Dec 2021 13:05:22 GMTGrapes are alright i guess.

]]><![CDATA[Dodgy cancun Substack Substack taqueria Substack]]>https://paidpub.substack.info/p/random-post-98e9f69f-5ae0-11f1-bf2f-1f1efed9e149https://paidpub.substack.info/p/random-post-98e9f69f-5ae0-11f1-bf2f-1f1efed9e149Wed, 21 Jul 2021 01:13:01 GMTGrapes are alright i guess.

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